Grounded, or a dream? — every asset decomposed in the language of finance.

Price decomposition · four majors — how much of each price is a measured anchor vs the future expectations priced on top. An observation, not a verdict.
BTC Bitcoin BTC110%
measured anchor · price sits 10% below the production-cost floor
ETH Ethereum ETH0.25%
measured anchor · future expectations: 99.75% of price
SOL Solana SOL0.22%
measured anchor · future expectations: 99.78% of price
AVAX Avalanche AVAX0.00%
measured anchor · future expectations: 100.00% of price

BTC: most of the price sits above a production-cost floor — a capital asset. ETH / SOL / AVAX: almost the entire price is future expectation — growth assets. The same ruler, different shapes.

Macro environment — the backdrop, not a verdict
Today

The U.S. policy rate sits at 3.63%; the 10Y–2Y Treasury spread is +0.28 (an upward-sloping curve); gold is near $4,587/oz and crude oil near $100/bbl.

A snapshot of current macro conditions, shown as context for the assets below — not a forecast, not a recommendation.
public domain · US Treasury · NY Fed · US BLS · Federal Reserve H.6 · World Bank · cached
Macro → r → floor
4.38%10Y Treasury · risk-free+8.0%crypto risk premium=12.38%discount rate rsizes →E / rcash-flow floor→coveragefloor ÷ price

How the backdrop enters the model — as a discount rate, not a price driver. The 10-Year Treasury is the risk-free leg of r; r = 10Y + an 8% crypto risk premium = 12.38%. Lowering r enlarges the measured anchor and shrinks future expectations; raising r does the reverse. This is a mechanical identity within the model — not a claim that macro drives price, and not a basis that justifies expectations.

Today's notable — observations, not signals
  • 10Y–2Y Treasury spread at +0.28 — upward slope.
  • Gold near $4,587/oz.
  • Bitcoin supply 95.5% issued of the 21M cap.
  • U.S. policy rate (EFFR) 3.63%.
  • Crude oil near $100/bbl (Brent/Dubai/WTI average).